A Spatial Statistics Examination of Changes in Violent Crime Patterns following a Housing Redevelopment Project

MICHAEL BACON: A Spatial Statistics Examination of Changes in Violent Crime Patterns Following a Housing Redevelopment Project The HOPE VI public housing redevelopment program has funded the demolition of many distressed public housing units across the United States, along with the construction of new developments which incorporate public housing with market-rate housing. Among the primary goals of this program is the improvement of the safety and security of the public housing residents as well as their non-public housing neighbors. One such HOPE VI project replaced the Few Gardens public housing community in Durham, NC with an array of mixedincome housing scattered throughout a 96 block area just east of downtown. Using univariate statistical techniques implemented through a geographical information system (GIS), along with local statistics of spatial clustering, this study examines how the spatial distribution of violent crime changed both in the area around the demolished complex and in the city as a whole during the time period in which the project was executed. While the HOPE VI area remained one of the more dangerous parts of the city, violent crime in the neighborhood declined precipitously between 2002 and 2004. At the same time, however, violent crime increased in several other pockets of the city, including some areas where large numbers of former Few Gardens residents relocated. These results illustrate HOPE VI's capacity for positive change, but also troubling trends in which disorganization and inequality may be replicated elsewhere in the city.